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2024 Apartment Forecast Remains Strong Despite Twists

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Despite concerns about uncertainties and a potential recession, the 2024 forecast for the rental market shows robust fundamentals for multifamily.

Supply surge predictions: The number of new multifamily apartment units under construction reached a record 1M in late 2023. Origin Investments predicts a slowdown in new starts next year due to a lack of funding and ongoing uncertainties. Yardi Matrix analysis also aligns with this prediction.

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Rent growth outlook: Rent growth, which cooled due to easing demand and rising supply, is expected to recover slightly in 2024 but remain in the low single digits. Negative rent growth is projected to return to the historic norm within a 2–4% range by 2H24, similar to 2022 levels.

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Homeownership barriers: Systemic barriers to homeownership, such as high prices and spiking mortgage rates, contribute to the long-term renter trend. Few buyers can afford homes and existing owners are reluctant to sell. Consensus expectations suggest mortgage rates will ease in 2024 but won't significantly impact the for-sale market.

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New realities and opportunities: Next year’s apartment forecasts reveal new realities and new opportunities. Hybrid work, driven by the pandemic, will become the new normal, creating demand for rentals that accommodate flexible work-life balance. And insurance, which shot up in 2022 due to natural disasters, may stay high. Despite this, ongoing opportunities and potential returns, particularly in senior debt and preferred equity, are attracting plenty of attention.



REFERENCES : Realpage, December 8 2023 -


Disclaimer: The article content above is derived from CRE Daily  DEC 12, 2023 newsletter and is used here for informational purposes. [] is an independent entity and not officially affiliated with CREdaily.

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